The poll brings the SNP down three points from last month and suggests it will win 36 percent of the vote in the next general election. Labor is up two points to 31%.
It’s a remarkable turnaround from Anas Sarwar, who came third in 2019 with just 19% of the vote.
Scottish Labor deputy leader Jackie Baillie said the party was “back in business”.
SNP leads Labor by 5 points in Scotland. In 2019, Labor ranked third.
Scotland Westminster VI (March 31 – April 1):
SNP 36% (-3)
Labor 31% (+2)
Conservative 19% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 10% (+4)
Green 2% (–)
Reform 2% (–)
Other 1% (–)Changes +/- March 2-5https://t.co/0jIqoLLdLG pic.twitter.com/YzhZYZSdOP
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) April 4, 2023
The pollster also suggests that the Tories would now take 19%, while the Liber Dems would gain 10%, a jump of four points from the latest poll.
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The gap between the SNP and Labor is slightly larger when voters are asked how they would vote in the upcoming Holyrood election.
In the constituency vote, the SNP has 38%, while Labor has 28%. The Tories are at 18% and the Liberal Democrats at 10%.
In the list vote, the SNP is at 30%, Labor at 24%, the Conservatives at 19%, while the Liberal Democrats at 13% and the Greens at 11%.
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The poll also gives the first approval rating for Humza Yousaf as Prime Minister. Voters have given him a net approval rating of -7%. While 23% approve, another 30% disapprove, and another 35% say they neither approve nor disapprove.
When asked if they thought she would be a worse leader than Nicola Sturgeon, 39% of voters said they thought she would, while 32% thought she would be about the same.
Another 11% said they would be better.
Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak receives a net approval rating of -13%, while Douglas Ross is at -20%. Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar sees his approval rating rise by six points to now stand at +10%.
When asked their opinion of the UK government, the majority of Scots, 61%, think it is incompetent. Only 39% feel the same about the current Scottish government.
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On independence, No leads by eight points, getting 54% of the vote once the don’t know is eliminated, while Yes has 46%.
The pollster says support for Scottish independence remains “particularly strong among younger Scots”, with majorities aged 16-24 (51%), 25-34 (54%) and 35-44 (52%) all saying they would vote Yes.
By comparison, only 37% of those aged 55-64 and 31% of those over 65 would vote to leave the UK.
‘No’ leads by 6 points.
Voting intention for the Scottish independence referendum (31 March – 1 April):
No, against Independence: 50% (-1)
Yes, for Independence: 44% (+2)
Don’t know: 6% (-2)
Changes +/- March 2-5https://t.co/0jIqoLLdLG pic.twitter.com/E4WaiORVlh— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) April 4, 2023
The country is evenly split on the timing of any future vote, with 44% against one next year. Although that is down five points in the last month. Meanwhile, 41%, up seven points, would support holding one in this time period.
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Scottish Labor deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: “The only poll that matters is the one on Election Day, but the trend speaks for itself: Scottish Labor is back in business.
“Scots are fed up with this Tory government and know that only Scottish Labor can drive them out of Downing St and bring about the change Scotland needs.
“Divided and scandal-plagued SNP can only oppose the Conservatives: Scottish Labor can drive them out of power.”
Meanwhile, Alex Salmond’s Alba has accused the Scottish Greens of holding back independence.
Party general secretary Chris McEleny said: “Support for independence is much higher than that of the SNP, so we must not allow unpopular policies to take precedence over independence due to pressure from Green Party ministers. “.
“The new first minister must shift the focus of the Scottish government away from polarizing policies such as gender reforms and meet the priorities of the whole population. This is the way to ensure that the Scottish government helps to increase support for independence.”
In response, Green MSP Maggie Chapman, said Alba was “on the outside desperately watching”.
She said: “Frankly, these are the comments of yesterday’s men of the last century who, with their socially conservative and climate-destructive views, should leave Scottish politics to those who wish to build a sustainable country for future generations.
“This is not about a party. We need to build support beyond the SNP, the Scottish Greens and other pro-indy groups to secure a majority. This is how healthy democracy works. Alba is working to undermine that, as evidenced by her latest invective.”